It appears as though commodities are back in the spotlight midweek. There is little doubt that oil will continue to rise as the summer draws to a close. But commodities may become the central players of the global economic recovery as more and more people sink more and more of their investments into precious metals, oil, and other commodities backed sectors.
While a few select banks have recently been allowed to repay their TARP debts and while the rest of the economy has seen a bullish up trend over the past 3 months, commodities haven’t gotten their fair share of the attention. Only now, with China announcing that it is stockpiling more bullion than previously thought, and Germany requesting all of its US-held bullion be shipped back to Europe are we seeing the Comex being squeezed a bit.
This pressure could allow for new highs in gold and silver, and create an opportunity for third-party buyers to come in and really play games with the short term spot prices. Most US banks have shorted gold and silver in the mid and short terms, and all it would take is two or three wealthy parties to show the shorts who’s boss. If the Comex was forced to deliver on more bullion than it actually claims it has in its vaults, precious metal prices could skyrocket based on the increased demand and newly-announced lack of supply.
This shake-up could come at a time when the new economic green shoots in the US are beginning to take hold, taking any recovery that’s less than slow and arduous off the table. The new kings of the market may well be those heavily invested in commodities.
With little doubt, oil will likely hit a yearly high sometime between early July and late September. Pipelines and suppliers will get pinched by the speeding up of the recovery in the US and all the ensuing consumer actions and new spending. I would imagine that people will want to continue the age old American road trip legacy and begin to lose touch with the fact that gasoline prices were, only a year or so ago, hovering around the $5 mark. All the advances that were made by the American consumer in the realm of becoming more Earth conscious and fuel efficient in the travels may very soon be wiped away.
This picture is one that could very well be in place by next month. Assuming that the American consumer again feels comfortable enough to resume their old habits, commodities are set for a real explosion in the coming months. The fuse could very well already be lit. Given that consumer confidence is on the decline, I’d be willing to bet that commodities will see a real tumble over the summer only to recover in the later winter months and into 2010. Only time will tell, but this moment could very well be one of the best moments for investors to pull the trigger on commodities like oil and precious metals.

